TO: The New President
FROM: Jan Mazurek
RE: Making America the World's
Clean-Car Leader
Everyone agrees that America must break its dangerous
addiction to oil. Our nation's security and
prosperity demand it; so does the health of our
environment. In no policy area is a radical break from the
Bush administration needed more urgently.
Most of the oil we consume goes to power our cars,
trucks and airplanes. The gas we burn emits carbon into
the atmosphere, heating up the earth's climate. To pay for
imported oil, we ship hundreds of billions of dollars abroad
each year, often to unfriendly and repressive regimes. Your
administration can break that vicious cycle by speeding
America's transition to clean cars and clean fuels.
First you need to modernize outdated policies. Since the
time of the last U.S. oil crisis, during the 1970s, America has relied on CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) standards to compel
car companies to build vehicles that get better gas mileage. It is important to
note that Congress did not create CAFE to address global warming, a challenge
that was not yet widely understood at the time. Congress created CAFE
as a way to force Detroit to build fuel-efficient cars, nothing more.
Clearly, though, CAFE no longer makes sense at a time when global warming
is fast approaching the point of no return, and when soaring demand
from fast-growing nations like China and India is bidding oil and gas prices
up on a permanent basis.
You should therefore phase out CAFE and replace it with a new policy that
focuses on cutting carbon emissions from cars and trucks. Before describing
that new framework, let's review where things stand right now.
Oil consumption is a major contributor to global climate change, accounting
for one-third of U.S. greenhouse-gas emissions. Passenger cars,
light trucks, and SUVs account for nearly one-half of the 20 million barrels
of oil consumed in the U.S. each day. If we are to sustain a car-centered national
lifestyle, we must usher in a new era of clean, energy-efficient cars and
trucks.
The Bush administration has abdicated its responsibility to spur change,
and Americans have paid dearly for the absence of a responsible energy policy.
Instead of meaningful reform, conservatives cling defiantly to the status quo
and mislead the American public with disingenuous plans to drill our way to
lower gas prices.
In fact, there is no way for America to drill its way to energy independence.
The U.S. controls just 3 percent of the world's proven reserves, so as
long as our transportation system runs on oil, America will be dependent on
foreign countries. Instead of enriching such oil suppliers as Venezuela, Saudi
Arabia, and Russia, we need to start investing more U.S. energy dollars here
at home.
Which brings us back to CAFE. Shortly after Congress created them, CAFE
standards helped boost mileage standards by one-quarter. Subsequently, however,
falling oil prices undermined the consensus for tough action. So did some fierce resistance from Detroit: Automakers routinely complained that
CAFE forces them to make costly trade-offs in terms of vehicle performance
and safety. They also claimed that higher standards would compel them to
build vehicles that consumers do not want.
A key reason CAFE's early successes stalled is because it set a lower miles-pergallon
standard for trucks (20.7) than for passenger cars (27.5). Not surprisingly,
since CAFE 's inception in 1975 the share of new vehicles manufactured
as light trucks (SU Vs, minivans, and pickups) has increased dramatically from
20 percent of sales to more than 50 percent of the market today.
In December 2007, Democrats finally were able to lift the standard from
27.5 miles per gallon to 35 miles per gallon by 2020. That same year, a federal
appeals court told the Bush administration to close the SUV loophole. Even
with these tighter directives, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
(NHTSA), which is primarily charged with CAFE's administration, has
been stubbornly slow to translate these mandates into action.
In addition, CAFE still does a poor job of encouraging automakers to add
more fuel-efficient models to their fleets. For example, a manufacturer of
many big and some small cars could have a hard time achieving the standards,
but a maker of only small cars would not have any problem at all -- even if the
first manufacturer produced a more fuel-efficient small car than the second.
In other words, the present standard does not necessarily encourage either
manufacturer to build a more fuel-efficient small car.
The combination of the SUV loophole and the fact that CAFE only measures
fleet averages has caused automakers to build more SUVs, while trying
to keep their "average" up by also making very small passenger cars. This
top-heavy, bottom-light approach means that consumers sometimes must
choose between the cars they want and those that meet high fuel-economy standards.
We need a new approach. It no longer makes sense to wrangle over incremental
increases in a standard that focuses only on the input side of the
equation -- miles per gallon. To curb the emissions that are overheating the
planet, progressives should focus on the other side of the equation: the carbon
output of tailpipe exhaust.
That is why you should call for replacing CAFE with a new standard based
on our real aim -- reducing carbon emissions. This would have a galvanic effect on automakers and help make America the world's leader in clean-car
technology.
Carbon-based standards have several important advantages over CAFE.
Most notably, they move performance measurements away from miles per
gallon -- typically associated with gasoline -- toward a standard that more
closely measures environmental impact. Measuring tailpipe emissions is really
a more direct and efficient way to achieve CAFE's goals.
Look at it this way: If someone invented a car that ran on water, we would
not be concerned with whether it got 20 miles per gallon or 30 miles per
gallon. Efficiency for efficiency's sake is fine, but what truly matters now is
reducing carbon emissions -- and the simple fact is that one of the best ways
to emit less carbon is to use less oil.
As on many other environmental issues, California is leading the way. Its vehicle
standards set limits on the amount of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse
gases that can be released from new vehicles, beginning with passenger
cars, SUVs, and pickup trucks sold in model year 2009.
At least 18 states -- representing 45 percent of the car market -- have sought
to follow California's standard, but the Golden State cannot get the process
underway until the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) grants it a waiver --
a process that has been blocked by the Bush administration.
California's tailpipe standards for vehicles encourage manufacturers to
comply by building cars that run on cleaner fuels, including diesel, biofuels,
electricity and hydrogen. The measure is designed to curb vehicle emissions
of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases 30 percent by 2016.
The California Air Resources Board estimates that meeting California tailpipe
standards would add, on average, about $1,000 to the sticker price of a
new vehicle. Better efficiency, however, will save drivers about $700 per year
in fuel. If gasoline were to return to nationwide price levels of $4 or more per
gallon (hardly an outlandish prediction), that means consumers can recover
the higher up-front cost of their investment in just one and a half years.
An early and important priority will be for you to allow the EPA to
grant California a waiver. But an important first-term initiative will be to stitch these state efforts into a comprehensive federal tailpipe-standard
program.
Under a "tailpipe trading" system, makers of more fuel-efficient vehicles
could sell credits to competitors who fail to make the grade, a system similar
to the tradable emissions allowances that helped reduce acid rain. All manufacturers
would have a continuous economic incentive to innovate and improve
fuel efficiency.
This brings us to a separate but closely related reform proposal: the establishment
of a cap-and-trade system for carbon emissions. To set such a system in
motion, the government would give away or sell trading allowances that add
up to the total carbon-emissions limit set up under the cap. Emitters -- such
as energy producers and factories -- can then sell excess trading allowances to
those who cannot cheaply curb emissions.
This creates a powerful incentive for companies to reduce their own pollution
levels. In addition, an emissions-based standard, coupled with a tailpipe-trading
system, could be integrated into a nationwide "cap-and-trade" regime
that limits all U.S. carbon-dioxide emissions from whatever source.
America is the only developed country that has not put a price on carbon
emissions. By bringing our nation into parity with other advanced economies
on cap-and-trade, you would help galvanize action on three fronts.
First, a new U.S. cap-and-trade system would create the world's largest
carbon-dioxide market. Putting a price on carbon-containing fuels will unleash
a powerful torrent of investment in clean-energy technologies. This, in
turn, would generate billions of dollars in new business activity and millions
of new jobs.
Second, a tailpipe-trading system for carbon would give automakers a
profit motive to produce cars and trucks that keep carbon-dioxide emissions
under set limits. Carmakers whose fleets miss the mark could buy carbontrading
credits from any company subject to the national carbon cap (not
just other carmakers), or pay into a fund that could be used to further spur
innovation. In other words, trading helps to reduce the total cost of building
the fuel-efficient cars that Americans want.
Third, there may be some administrative advantages to moving from
miles-per-gallon to carbon standards. The design and administration of such
a program at the federal level could be moved away from the historically
reform-averse NHTSA to the EPA, which already performs some CAFE testing
and measurement programs and will most likely administer a national
cap-and-trade system.
Despite the promise of such a tailpipe-trading system, Detroit carmakers
have challenged the California emissions law, arguing that fuel economy is a
national issue and not one to be decided state-by-state. Mr. President, you
can end the gridlock by first granting California its long-sought waiver and
then urging Congress to replace CAFE with a national tailpipe-trading system
for carbon.
If history is any guide, the auto industry will at first resist any major policy
shift, particularly at this financially challenging time. In December 2008, the
House of Representatives approved a $14 billion loan to the Big Three U.S.
automakers. The measure included a provision that would have barred the
car companies from pursuing lawsuits against California and other states that
want to implement tougher tailpipe emissions standards. Unfortunately, the
White House insisted that the California waiver be dropped from the bill as
it moved to the Senate. In any case, Republicans killed the bill in the Senate.
The White House subsequently offered Detroit what essentially amounts to a
three-month, $17.4 billion bridge loan, with no requirement that automakers
meet more stringent state emissions' standards. Mr. President, if you and
Congress opt to provide Detroit with additional taxpayer dollars, then automakers
should have to hold up their own end of the bargain by producing a
new generation of market-ready clean cars.
It would be in U.S. carmakers' own interest to embrace the challenge of
leading the world in the development and deployment of such vehicles. The
Japanese and German auto industries have seen the writing on the wall and
are rushing to get ahead of the clean-fuel curve, starting with hybrid cars.
Keeping the U.S. market sheltered from such trends would be a particularly
short-sighted form of protectionism.
There's a saying: "That which gets measured gets done." By measuring
carbon emissions, we can improve economic efficiency, protect our environment,
and reduce our dependence on foreign oil. These are objectives worthy
of a new president.