Adapted from the book WITH ALL OUR MIGHT: A Progressive Strategy
for Defeating Jihadism and
Defending Liberty,
edited by Will Marshall
(Rowman & Littlefield, 2006)
In the summer of 1859, the world's
first commercial oil well began
pumping in Titusville, Pa. Over
the next century, Americans invented
the modern oil economy. The country
fueled its own industrial revolution
and two world wars, with a healthy
petroleum surplus to export. Along
the way, as production spread from
Pennsylvania to Texas and the Plains
states, and as auto manufacturers sold
millions of affordable cars to the masses,
the American way of life took hold.
Today, commuters drive long distances
from houses in the suburbs,
past strip malls and drive-through
restaurants, to jobs in the world's leading
economy. Yet the country's safety
and prosperity now depend increasingly
on its willingness to break free of
its historic reliance on oil.
America has gone from being the
largest oil producer to the largest
importer. It consumes one-quarter of
the world's oil, and its once-bountiful
domestic reserves have dwindled to just
3 percent of the world's supplies.
Looking forward, U.S. dependence on
foreign oil is only projected to increase.
The U.S. Department of Energy predicts
that by 2025, America will import
between 63 percent and 72 percent of
its oil.
This worsening oil addiction
poses a triple threat to America's
national security, economy, and environmental
health. A 50-year legacy
of petro-centric policy decisions has
left the United States deeply entangled
in the politically unstable
Middle East -- the wellspring of
jihadist terrorism -- because that is
where two-thirds of global petroleum
reserves are located.
Meanwhile, the country's growing
reliance on imports means that
Americans are sending more dollars
overseas, pushing the U.S. trade deficit
to record heights. In 1998, Americans
spent $50 billion on oil imports; by
2004, the tab had more than tripled,
to $179 billion. Occasional spikes in
oil prices have thus far done little lasting
harm to the economy, but a major
disruption of oil supplies -- say, from a
terrorist attack in the Persian Gulf --
could easily trigger a recession.
On top of all of this, the country's
prodigious oil consumption is
spurring global climate change, with
all of its insidious side effects -- from
the receding polar ice caps, to increasingly
destructive hurricanes, to the
potential spread of exotic diseases such
as West Nile virus and bird flu.
The spillover costs of this oil habit
are becoming prohibitive. It's time to
put American ingenuity to work
inventing the world's first post-oil
economy.
President George W. Bush made
waves when he belatedly
admitted in his sixth State
of the Union address that
"America is addicted to
oil." Yet, despite his apparent
epiphany, he and his
Republican allies remain
firmly wedded to the status quo. They
want to reduce U.S. dependence on foreign
oil by opening up Alaska's Arctic
National Wildlife Refuge, where
reserves are difficult to reach and expensive
to extract, and where the yield
would probably amount to a tiny fraction
of the country's regular demand.
Incredibly, the White House and
congressional Republicans last year
showered the oil industry and other
fossil fuel producers with more than
$11 billion in tax breaks, even though
they had been reaping record profits
because of soaring oil prices. The
much-heralded Energy Policy Act of
2005 did practically nothing to
change energy consumption patterns
in the transportation sector, which
accounts for two-thirds of the nation's
oil use and one-third of the greenhouse
gas emissions implicated in
global warming. In signing the energy
bill, Bush consigned the nation to drift
slowly toward a clean energy future,
when it should be accelerating its
progress.
Administration critics, meanwhile,
have issued ringing but vague calls for
a new "Manhattan Project" or "Apollo
moon shot" effort to help the United
States achieve energy independence.
They urge adoption of ambitious
national goals, such as creating 3 million
more "new energy" jobs, or cutting
oil use in half in 20 years.
Conspicuously missing from these
well-intentioned schemes, however, is
a credible road map for getting from
here to there.
And so, the United States remains
suspended between the past and the
future, between oil and clean energy,
between the administration's more-of-the-
same approach to energy and its
critics' over-the-horizon solutions.
It is time for progressives to fill in the
blanks in their clean energy blueprints.
The country needs concrete ideas for
changing the way it consumes energy in
the here and now, not in the distant
future. And policymakers must recognize
that making oil more expensive to
burn is the sine qua non of any credible
plan for energy security.
What would such a plan entail?
The key is a mandatory national cap
on greenhouse gas emissions. This
longtime environmental policy goal
has now become the first imperative
of energy policy as well, for a simple
reason: The most common greenhouse
gas, carbon dioxide, is produced
by burning oil and other fossil
fuels. So a cap on greenhouse gases
would immediately spur the development
of alternative fuels and cleaner
technologies. When combined with
emissions credits that companies
could sell or buy, the resulting "capand-
trade" system would offer a flexible,
decentralized, and market-driven
way to lower the nation's output of
greenhouse gases.
It would also create the framework
for several other major steps that
could galvanize progress toward a
clean energy future: first, replacing
the stalled auto fuel economy standards
with a new regime of "tailpipe
trading" that would operate within
the national greenhouse gas emissions
trading market. By raising the cost of
burning fossil fuels, this system
would also spur the commercialization
of the most attractive alternatives,
especially home-grown biofuels.
Finally, capping carbon emissions
and creating incentives for innovation
would stimulate U.S. efforts to
capture the burgeoning global market in
clean energy sources and technologies.
The market potential of clean
energy -- for the heartland states
where crops can be grown to produce
biofuels; for Detroit, which will need
to produce new generations of cars;
and for the U.S. economy as a
whole -- is enormous. By one estimate,
the global race to build clean, energy-friendly
technologies is already worth
more than $600 billion and growing.
In the same way oil made horsepower
and whale blubber obsolete, these
clean technologies point the way
toward a post-oil economy.
A Progressive Clean
Energy Strategy
The environmental, energy, and
strategic challenges posed to the
United States by its lingering dependence
on imported oil, coupled with
China's growing appetite for it,
vividly illustrate why it is high time
for the president and Congress to
come to terms with the reality of
global energy and environmental
interdependence. No country exists
in a vacuum. The consumption, output,
and environmental refuse of
one roaring national economy sends
ripple effects throughout the world.
America must shape its national
policies -- and engage with the rest of
the world to shape international
policies -- accordingly.
In addition to re-engaging with the
international partners that America
shunned by withdrawing from the
Kyoto Protocol, U.S. policymakers
must embark on a far-reaching, four-part
clean energy strategy here at
home.
Step 1: Cap carbon emissions
now. As an environmental policy
strategy, the cap-and-trade approach
has already proven to be wildly successful,
most notably in the fight
against sulfur dioxide pollutants
from power plants that cause acid
rain. The key to its success is that the
policy focuses only on the intended
outcome -- total emissions levels --
rather than mandating specific technologies
or practices that industries
must use to meet the target.
Companies are free to find the most
innovative ways possible to meet
their obligations -- and they are given
incentives to actually exceed those
obligations.
For the same reasons, a cap-and-trade
approach that covers carbon
emissions will prove to be an effective
energy policy strategy. It can serve as
the lever that has thus far been missing
to push the economy away from oil
consumption and toward more sustainable
alternatives.
Step 2: Shift from fuel economy
standards to tailpipe trading. For
nearly half a century, transportation
has accounted for about one-quarter
of total U.S. energy use and two-thirds
of total oil consumption. Tailpipe
exhaust remains a leading source of air
pollution and accounts for roughly
one-third of the nation's emissions of
carbon dioxide. Therefore, a national
cap-and-trade system should include
limits on tailpipe emissions from cars
and trucks.
As in cap-and-trade proposals for
energy producers, factories, and other
big emitters, a tailpipe trading system
would give automakers a profit motive
to produce cars and trucks that keep
carbon dioxide emissions below
national standards. Companies whose
fleets miss the mark would have to buy
credits from other companies (any regulated
company, not just other automakers),
or pay fines to the government.
Because of the profit motive it creates,
such a policy is far more likely to
reduce oil consumption than the
country's stalled system of miles-pergallon
standards. Those standards,
known as Corporate Average Fuel
Economy (CAFE) standards, are mired
in congressional gridlock and unlikely
to be significantly tightened anytime
soon, as the 2005 energy bill deliberations
proved.
Step 3: Replace oil with homegrown
biofuels. As their name
implies, biofuels are made from crops
like soy, corn, and peanuts -- even
plant waste that would otherwise rot
and emit methane, a potent greenhouse
gas. Biofuels are infinitely
renewable, relatively clean burning,
and safe to handle, and they can be
produced in abundance here on
American soil.
One of the most promising biofuels
is biodiesel. In the United States, most
of it now comes from soybeans and
recycled cooking fats, but those represent
only a fraction of potential
sources. Other sources include canola,
corn, cotton, mustard, peanuts, sunflowers,
and even lard. Like most other
vehicle fuels, biodiesel releases carbon
dioxide when it is burned. Those emissions,
however, are recycled by the
crops grown to make new batches of
biodiesel. New crops breathe in or
"sequester" carbon dioxide in equal or
greater amounts than the CO2 released
by combusting biodiesel to run cars,
trucks, and heavy machinery. When
the Energy Department studied that
closed carbon loop, it concluded that
buses using pure biodiesel emit 78
percent less CO2 than those using
petrodiesel.
Step 4: Capture the clean technology
market. In the same way that
the birth of commercial oil production
helped usher in a new industrial
era, the U.S. economy already has at
its disposal new energy-saving technologies
that may serve as the cornerstone
of the next energy era. And in
the same way that the oil crisis of the
1970s spurred businesses and consumers
to do more with less oil,
advances already at hand can help
dramatically reduce oil consumption.
By one estimate, cars made from
advanced carbon composite material
or lightweight steel can nearly double
the efficiency of today's popular
hybrid-electric cars and light trucks,
while improving safety and performance.
Although the future of alternative
energy, energy efficiency, and
other green technologies -- collectively
termed "clean tech" -- is still
somewhat uncertain, many clean
energy industries are growing rapidly.
For instance, the global solar power
market alone generates more than
$7 billion per year and is expanding
at an annual rate of more than 30
percent.
Bush has refused to do anything
serious about global warming,
because he says greenhouse gas regulation
would wreak havoc on the
U.S. economy. That was his main
rationale for pulling the United
States out of the Kyoto Protocol,
which took effect in February 2005.
But the truth is that the clean technologies
that can curb global warming
represent a tremendous economic
growth opportunity -- worth $607
billion in 2005.
To be sure, Kyoto was a flawed deal
for the United States that needed to be
improved. But this is an economic lesson
America should already have
learned. Consider that shortly after
Congress created the nation's clean air
and clean water laws in the 1970s, they
had created 50,000 jobs in the construction
industry and 75,000 jobs in
other sectors. The sluggish U.S. job
growth in the months after the spikes in
oil prices triggered by the 2005 hurricanes
was just another reminder of how
vulnerable the U.S. economy is to fuel
price shocks in general.
America's national security, economic
interests, and environmental health
demand that policymakers neither
accept today's energy policy stalemate
nor passively wait for a distant wholesale
shift to a clean energy future.
Although the country is gradually moving
away from a 50-plus-year policy of
propping up despotic regimes to protect
oil supplies, it has yet to supplant
that policy with a viable alternative.
Despite his admission that America is
addicted to oil, Bush seems basically
content with this state of drift, as evidenced
by his enthusiastic embrace of
the utterly conventional 2005 energy
bill.
It therefore falls to progressives to
champion a post-oil economic plan
that will yield real progress now. They
must make the case to the American
people that no leader or political party
should be considered credible on
national security unless it puts bold
energy reforms at the center of its
agenda.