Giscard d'Estaing -- then president of France, more recently chairman of the drafting convention for the proposed EU Constitution -- called the first meeting of the "G-8" at Rambouillet in 1975. That year, the group was the "G-6," and included Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United States. Canada joined in 1976 and Russia in 1997. The eight presidents and prime ministers assemble today in Scotland for the group's 31st meeting, to discuss aid for Africa and climate change as well as the global economy generally.
Despite the addition of Russia, however, the G-8's share of the world economy has slipped a bit. The six countries which met in Rambouillet 30 years ago accounted for 48 percent of the world economy; had Russia and Canada attended, the figure would have been about 55 percent. Today's G-8 -- even with Canada and Russia added -- makes up about 44 percent of global GDP. Middle-income Asian countries have gained in the interim: Korea, Southeast Asia, China, and India made up only about 11 percent of global GDP in 1975, and now account for almost 25 percent. The Latin American and African shares remain about the same as they were 30 years ago, while those of the Middle East and the former Soviet Union have dropped.
This year the trend is likely to continue, as the International Monetary Fund predicts that the world economy will grow by about 4 percent. In practical terms, this means global GDP will rise from about $56 trillion to $58 trillion. G-8 members will account for about $700 billion of the new wealth, reflecting average growth of about 2.6 percent, ranging from 1 percent in Japan and 2 percent in Europe to 3.5 percent in the United States and 6 percent in Russia. Growth in developing Asia will be 7.4 percent. Forecasts for Africa and the Middle East are 5 percent each, and for Latin America and the Caribbean 4.1 percent.
Despite its remarkable post-1970s performance, Asia still has lots of lost ground to make up. China's share of world GDP is now about 13 percent, almost triple the share it held when the G-8 series began. (By the end of the Cultural Revolution in the mid-1970s, it had dropped to an all-time low of under 5 percent.) But economic historian Angus Maddison estimates that during the 18th-century, at the high point of the Qing dynasty, China had a 30 percent share of global GDP. India's share of global GDP has likewise risen from 3 percent to 5 percent since the 1970s, but remains far below its Moghul-era peak of 25 percent.
Home page for 2005 G8 Summit:
http://www.perthshireg8.com/
U.K. government site for the G-8 summit:
http://www.g8.gov.uk/servlet/
Front?pagename=OpenMarket/Xcelerate/
ShowPage&c=Page&cid=1078995902703
Report of Prime Minister Blair's Commission for Africa:
http://www.commissionforafrica.org/
english/report/introduction.html
Outlook -- The IMF's World Economic Outlook report tells you how big economies are and how fast they are growing. For this year, growth in the United States, China, Europe, Mexico, Brazil, and everywhere else pales next to the performance of small oil producers. With energy prices spiking, growth may be above 20 percent in Azerbaijan, Chad, and Equatorial Guinea. But the Maldives may grow by only 1 percent as residents struggle to cope with the aftereffects of last December's tsunami. Unhappy Zimbabwe is worst off, with the economy set to contract for the seventh year in a row. See the Statistical Annex for figures:
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/
weo/2005/01/index.htm
The Really Big Picture -- Angus Maddison, in a chart provided by the OECD, reports on the world economy over the past 2000 years. The global economy of the Year 1, including the empires of Augustus, the later Han, and the Mauryas, comes to $102 billion across a 230-million population -- a figure roughly equal to the GDP of modern Malaysia, or America's annual bill for imports of clothes, shoes, and luggage. By the year 1000, global GDP had risen only to $124 billion, implying an annual growth rate of about 0.01% in the first millennium A.D. Until 1800 or so, global GDP shares were tied very closely to global population shares; China's 30 percent share of global GDP in 1800 simply reflects its 35 percent share of world population. The table's big event is the Industrial Revolution takeoff, which not only sped up growth but broke the link between share of global GDP and share of global population. Having risen slightly after 1500, global growth rates have averaged between 1 percent and 4 percent ever since the early 1800s.
http://www.theworldeconomy.org/publications/
worldeconomy/MaddisontableB-18.pdf
