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Goods/services exports as percent of U.S. GDP:
1957: 5.2%
1982: 8.7%
2000: 11.2.%
2002: 9.3%
2006: 11.0%
2007: 11.7%
In 2007, Americans produced $13.8 trillion worth of goods and services. Of this total, $1.64 trillion -- 11.7 percent, or a bit more than one in nine dollars' worth of production -- went overseas. The figure is a modern-era record, eclipsing the old 11.2 percent mark set in 2000 and reflecting a $175 billion jump in goods and services exports. This was the largest increase ever -- in real-dollar as well as current-dollar terms -- and was the main factor keeping the United States out of recession in the autumn and winter. Some samples:
- By region: Exports rose by nearly $30 billion in merchandise to the European Union. (Service exports by country aren't available until the autumn, but the EU's services purchases probably added another $15 billion.) Elsewhere the fastest-growing markets were in less traditional places: sales to China jumped by $10 billion, from $51 billion to $61 billion; sales to the Middle East also rose by $10 billion, and have doubled since 2004; exports to Russia and India rose even faster, though from lower bases.
- By state: The fastest-growing exporters in total-dollar terms were Texas and California, each with $17 billion in export growth. Washington and New York follow at $13 billion and $12 billion, respectively. In percentage terms, the Rocky Mountain West fared best. High grain and metal prices have helped three states in the region -- Nevada, Montana, and North Dakota -- double total exports since 2004, though manufactured goods from Montana and Idaho are also rising fast.
- By sector: Services exports rose by $57 billion, to $479 billion. Farm exports rose $20 billion, as wheat sales doubled from $4.3 billion to $8.5 billion. Manufacturing exports added another $80 billion, including $5 billion in pharmaceutical export growth, $9 billion in airplanes; and $30 million in musical-instrument makers, meanwhile, sold an extra $30 million abroad, with especially strong growth in drums and violins compensating for some declines in pianos and harmonicas.
In total, exports accounted for a third of last year's 2.2 percent GDP growth. As waves of bad news began to wash in last winter -- foreclosures, tumbling dollar, falling retail sales, more recently investment bank rescues -- exporters were the only thing keeping the national nose and lips above the recessionary waters. (The domestic economy shrank by -0.3 percent between October and December; export growth accounted for 0.9 growth; ergo, barely positive national 0.6 percent growth.)
Those searching for scarce good news can find some in January's trade report. This suggested another export-boom year ahead, with sales to China, Russia, Europe, and the Middle East all continuing to soar, while exports to Mexico, Canada, and Japan began to perk up. Interesting note as well: Last year's U.S.-Peru Free Trade Agreement entered into force in January, and exports to Peru hit $420 million, nearly double the $240 million for January 2007. Worsening news from the real estate, financial-market, and consumer sectors mean exporters may not be able to fend off a national recession this year. But their likely trio of round-number records -- $1 trillion in manufacturing exports, $500 billion in services exports, $100 billion in farm exports -- will ease its ferocity.
Some good news -- trade data from the Census Bureau:
http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/www/press.html#prior
But the sobering rest of the story -- GDP data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis:
http://www.bea.gov/
More on Europe -- A detailed looks find big jumps in sales to Europe of airplanes, cars, telecom gear, wheat, and medicines. In the niche industries, sales of musical instruments jumped by $30 million -- and European purchases of American-made lances, swords, cutlasses, and other medieval ordinance nearly doubled. Germany and Spain were the main buyers. The EU mission in Washington:
http://www.eurunion.org/
More on Peru -- High export growth reflects in part some exports of oil, but even excluding this, sales to Peru were up 50 percent over last January. Exports are up fast, imports jumped only modestly. (Total imports from Peru rose from $460 million in January 2007 to $515 million in 2008. Smelted copper and gold, neither covered by trade barriers in any case, accounted for the full $55 million increase.) The House Ways and Means Committee explains the Peru agreement:
http://waysandmeans.house.gov/MoreInfo.asp?section=33
Balance sheet -- In percentage terms, exports rose by about 12.2 percent last year. Imports grew by 5.9 percent, and the national trade deficit fell by $50 billion. Since 2005, import growth has been concentrated in energy, while manufacturing, services, and agriculture exports have risen fast. Trade balance figures reflect this shift by declining and growing more concentrated in oil and gas. As of January 2008, the national trade balance included a $35 billion petroleum deficit, a $32 billion deficit in other goods, a $10.5 billion services surplus, and a $2.7 billion farm-trade surplus. A comparison with January 2005:
